Preliminary summary of household photovoltaic market research
in June, I participated in the national household photovoltaic research activity guided by China photovoltaic industry association and led by PGO photovoltaic green ecological cooperation organization. I personally visited a number of household photovoltaic projects in Henan and Zhejiang provinces for a total of 14 days. Before sorting out the report, I made a brief summary of the market
according to the survey, at present, China's household photovoltaic market presents the following characteristics:
1. From the perspective of company management, three modes have basically become the mainstream of the market.
the first is the dealer mode, which is mostly dominated by photovoltaic module manufacturers, such as Trinasolar, Aikang technology, hanergy, Yingli and other companies, which mostly adopt this mode. The advantage of this mode is that it can quickly expand the national market in a large area, In a short time, the household photovoltaic market has established brand awareness, and the equipment shipments are also considerable. Some companies with strong market expansion have been able to ship about 10MW per month in recent months. Many of the market expansion teams of the company in the dealer mode come from solar water heaters, household appliances and other industries. Under this mode, the shipment volume of different companies has a large gap, which is directly related to the market investment. It is expected that Trinasolar's market share will increase significantly this year
the second is the leasing mode. This model is represented by zhongminlai, aerospace Electromechanical, Chint and other companies. Most of the system products of the leasing mode and the dealer mode are standardized products. The system product line of the leasing mode is relatively single, which is usually fixed to 5kW system, and the leasing cost is generally between yuan/year. Companies that choose the leasing mode usually choose one or several powerful partners in the regional market. The partners are responsible for market development, installation and construction, and later operation. Today, I will tell you about the use steps of the metallographic microscope and the calibration steps of the equipment. The company is mainly responsible for investment as the owner of the project. Due to the lease mode application and the same need to provide end-user information, some companies will combine the lease mode with the loan mode, that is, the user information will be used to apply for a loan in the cooperative bank, and the electricity revenue will be used for repayment. At the same time, the company is responsible for the possible difference, and will pay the user a fixed annual roof lease fee. After a certain period of time (usually years), the ownership of the roof photovoltaic assets will be completely transferred to the user. The advantage of the roof rental mode is that the early market promotion is relatively easy, the scale is large, the one-time centralized investment, and the market development cost is low
the third is the direct selling mode. System integrators mostly adopt this mode. They choose system suppliers such as components, inverters and brackets, and focus on the company's brand. The regional characteristics of this model market are obvious. Companies usually rely on a deep insight into the needs of users in a certain region, coupled with strong marketing means, to fully tap the social networks of each salesperson and turn them into orders. The companies that implement this model are usually small in size, with annual revenue ranging from one million to ten million, but there are also some outstanding companies that strengthen corporate management and organizational combat effectiveness, and the annual revenue this year is expected to reach the level of one billion. The market development cost of this mode generally accounts for a high proportion, and shows an increasing trend. In order to compete for orders, some companies will allow salespersons high sales commissions. Overall, the advantages of high-performance solutions are flexibility and low threshold, which are suitable for a large number of small and medium-sized companies. The difficulty lies in how to scale and unify
2. The regional characteristics of household photovoltaic market are obvious.
China has a vast region and uneven economic development level. The expansion of household photovoltaic market needs to be combined with local economic development. Zhejiang is the birthplace of China's household photovoltaic market. There are a large number of self built houses in all cities and counties. The houses usually have floors, and the roof is inclined roof. In addition to being used for self occupancy, most of the houses will be rented to tenants to engage in commercial activities or rent. The power consumption is large. The local subsidy policy in Zhejiang is also the most awesome in the country. Coupled with the electricity to encourage the mode of surplus power supply, local people usually choose surplus power supply, All electricity can enjoy national and local multi-level subsidies, and the part for self use can also charge higher commercial electricity prices from tenants, so there is a revenue space of "electricity in electricity"
in Henan, where the business is less developed, the household photovoltaic market is mainly in the vast rural areas. The sources of income increase of local farmers are limited, the investment channels are narrow, the houses are basically used for self occupation, and the electricity consumption is small. The choice of household photovoltaic system is mainly for investment considerations, especially the elderly want to invest in a system to solve the pension problem, and there are no more local subsidy policies, so the full payment mode is generally adopted
I believe that in other provinces, due to different levels of economic development, sources of residents' income, housing structure, etc., the starting point and purpose of users choosing household PV should also be different
3. At the initial stage of market development, the information is seriously asymmetric. Household photovoltaic products and installation quality are poor.
end users generally do not know about photovoltaic, and do not know which component manufacturers are there. Few users pay attention to the inverter brand or quality, and they are concerned about long-term income. Therefore, in the process of my research, non-ferrous metals and other materials, parts and finished products are often stretched, zigzagged, stripped, compressed, depressed A number of mechanical experiments and analysis, such as adhesion and tearing, encountered some users to ask whether this system will really generate electricity for 20 or even 25 years. In the process of selection, the determination to install a system is generally influenced by relatives and friends around us, especially those who have accumulated a certain amount of wealth locally. Their attitude is very critical to the start of a small regional market
the dealers or system integrators in the middle have different levels of understanding of photovoltaic. A large number of new entrants have never been exposed to any photovoltaic information before, and they are more willing to believe in information that is beneficial to them. For example, some second and third tier photovoltaic module manufacturers say that their product quality is no different from that of first tier manufacturers, and their cost performance is higher. Many dealers or system integrators highly agree with this statement. Relatively speaking, companies previously engaged in the photovoltaic industry are more willing to purchase brand products with high market share after entering the household photovoltaic field
upstream manufacturers have not made great achievements in brand launch at present, especially the first-line manufacturers in component enterprises. Previously, due to the general lack of attention to the household photovoltaic market, there was less brand launch in this regard. Some companies dedicated to cultivating this market, such as hanergy, Trinasolar and Yingli, have put a small amount of wall painting advertisements in rural areas. There are also some second and third tier component manufacturers, in order to influence dealers and assist dealers in the sales system, they also put wall brushing advertisements or car body advertisements. In terms of the total amount, the density of advertising is very low
household PV itself is in the initial stage of development, and the product quality needs to be tested for a certain period of time before there is a clear comparison. Therefore, no matter in Zhejiang or Henan, we can see a large number of companies that use information asymmetry to make profits. For example, by means of the adjustment of household PV electricity price policy after 630, we can cajole users into paying a high deposit as soon as possible in a short time, For example, the installed capacity sold is different from the actual installed capacity, such as the installed power of 255w and other inventory battery panels
in terms of installation, because the installation and construction conditions are very different from those of ground power stations and the market is very new, there is no mature installation and construction specification at present. The installation quality of different enterprises varies greatly, and the installation and construction quality of large enterprises is significantly better than that of small and medium-sized companies
the non-standard installation and construction has begun to cause some obvious problems, such as the direct drilling and installation of photovoltaic systems on the flat roof, and some users began to leak rain on the roof less than half a year; For example, punching holes in purlins directly on the inclined roof causes wood cracking and poor fixation, and the whole system shows signs of sliding
in the early development stage of any industry, there will be all kinds of chaos, and it may be difficult for household photovoltaic to escape this law, but unfortunately, users will eventually pay with their own real money. Photovoltaic is the most suitable energy form for distributed development, which is its most unique and attractive place. Enterprises interested in playing tricks in this field have begun to think about the following two questions:
1. How to achieve large-scale development on the premise of guaranteed profits
2. How to tap the extended value of household photovoltaic market